DUGi

Ús dels índex climàtics per avaluació de les sequeres a la Conca de l’Ebre a Catalunya

http://dugi.udg.edu/item/http:@@@@hdl.handle.net@@10256@@25882

Climate change origined by anthropogenic is causing an increase in average temperature and a decrease in precipitation in Catalonia. Climate change is mainly associated with the increase in ppm concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This increase in CO2 was detected from the year 1970. As a result of this global event, it is expected that there will be an increase in the duration and intensity of droughts in Catalonia. Currently, there are several European projects, such as EUROCORDEX, to try to predict temperatures and precipitation with high levels of resolution. Thanks to this area of resolution, the territory of the European Union can be studied with cells. A total of 16 models are studied in detail for each cell, which are composed of a GCM model (general circulation model) and an RCM model (regional circulation model). There are also initiatives in Catalonia, such as the " Tercer Informe Sobre El Canvi Climàtic A Catalunya ", which studies these variables and also studies climate projections. This TFG focuses on studying climate trends in the Ebro river basin. First, the climatic trends and drought indices in Vielha, Tremp and Tivissa have been studied. Secondly, the same process has been carried out with the data from the EUROCORDEX models, with the aim of contrasting the similarities and discrepancies between the data extracted from Meteocat and the data provided by EUROCORDEX. To compare the data, three EUROCORDEX cells have been downloaded, which included the stations within the area of the cells. Thirdly, the temperature, precipitation and drought indices have been projected using a EUROCORDEX model assembled for each station. The results of this work corroborate the need to design EUROCORDEX models with a higher level of accuracy. The assembled model underestimates the annual temperature increase recorded by the three stations. This tendency is even more accentuated in precipitation, where the observed data shows a greater annual reduction than the EUROCORDEX models, although neither the observed data nor the predictions are significant. Despite the inconsistencies, the projections of the EUROCORDEX RCP 4.5 data show a tendency to increase the duration and intensity of droughts, consistent with the "Tercer Informe Sobre El Canvi Climàtic A Catalunya"

6

13