DUGi

Predicci贸n de dependencia en ancianos atendidos en atenci贸n primaria = Prediction of dependency in the elderly attended in primary health care

http://dugi.udg.edu/item/http:@@@@hdl.handle.net@@2072@@299447

Objective: To identify the elderly population attended in primary health care with more risk of becoming dependent for activities of daily living. Methods: A longitudinal study, based on data recorded in the medical record of people from 75 years old. We constructed a Cox models to determine the risk of becoming dependent on the follow up. The discrimination capacity of the model was estimated with the concordance index. Results: The model showed as predictors of dependency: the mental impairment, according to the Pfeiffer test, severe (HR: 3,02; 95% CI 2,03-4,49) or moderate (HR: 1,35; 95% CI 1,08 to 1,68), homecare situation (HR: 1,82; 95% CI 1,44 to 2,31) and to have recorded history of falls (HR: 1,51; 95% CI 1,20 to 1,90). The C index of the derivation model was 0,72 (95% CI 0,68 to 0,76). Conclusions: The model accurately predicts patients most likely to be dependent

Objetivo principal: Identificar a la poblaci贸n anciana atendida en atenci贸n primaria con m谩s riesgo de ser dependiente para las actividades de la vida diaria. Metodolog铆a: estudio longitudinal, basado en datos registrados en la historia cl铆nica informatizada de personas a partir de 75 a帽os. Se construy贸 un modelo de Cox para determinar el riesgo de devenir dependiente en el seguimiento y se estim贸 su capacidad de discriminaci贸n. Resultados principales: el modelo mostr贸 como variables predictoras de dependencia el deterioro mental severo (HR: 3,02; 95% IC 2,03-4,49) o moderado (HR: 1,35; 95% IC 1,08-1,68) seg煤n el test de Pfeiffer, tener la condici贸n de atenci贸n domiciliaria (HR: 1,82; 95% IC 1,44-2,31) y tener historia de ca铆das registradas (HR: 1,51; 95% IC 1,20-1,90). El 铆ndice C del modelo fue de 0,72 (95% IC 0,68-0,76). Conclusi贸n principal: El modelo predice de forma precisa aquellos pacientes con m谩s probabilidad de ser dependientes

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